Sunday, 1 January 2017


Basic Dimension

Marcel van den Berg found two ricochets from which one looks somewhat like a grazing mark. He wonders if readers could find the point of detonation of the warhead from these ricochets:

Grazing mark: A bouncing fragment which only makes a notch with a very acute angle.
Ricochet: A bouncing fragment which mostly makes a hole in the metal of the target.

First the angle of the ricochets with the bottom line of the second left windshield was determined:

The angle is 18 degrees:

Notice, the bottom line of the second left windshield is not quite horizontal:

With ricochets we accept an impact angle to 30 degrees, above 30 degrees the fragment goes through the metal:

But titanium is very hard material, so we might set the 30 degree boundary on 45 degrees. Firstly, we need the emission of fragments by the lancet of Almaz-Antey:

Because it must have been heavy shrapnel we look for bowties and squares for the second left windshield:

Then we inspect the examples from next figure which might conform to the situation:

Now, we draw the red line of 117 degrees from the warhead to the plane, as if it is a grazing mark with a very, very acute angle:

As said earlier, the left ricochet looks a bit like a grazing mark which normally indicates the edge of the shrapnel cone. But this one is too deep and we are not on the edge:

More likely titanium is so strong that ricochets cannot make holes as easily as in aluminum. Therefore we can use the whole 30 degrees or more to explain ricochets:

We can make ricochets with an angle of 40 degrees:


We know the diameter of the fuselage is 6.20 meter:

From here we find all measures we need. First we fill in the horizontal dimension:

We see the point of detonation is more than 3 meters from the nose:

Then we calculate the vertical dimension:

Next picture is wrong since the warhead lies too low:

This looks much better:

Now we combine the horizontal and vertical dimension into a single picture:

And finally the point of detonation is given in a three dimensional picture:

Liane Theuer // June 29, 2016 at 8:45 pm // Reply
Basic, how do you explain the penetration holes in the cockpit floor and the ricochets at the right cockpit roof with your model ?

Well, I am not to blame for Admins brilliant ideas. And I am serious. But as a social scientist I only do the basic arithmetic for the guys, though I also have a scientific beta education.

But to be serious: the bomb exploded near the floor of the cockpit. Anything may have happened. But by Admin noticed ricochets were from the first impact. That’s important for now we are rather sure of the launch spot. And remember, these are ricochets from 1.7 meter distance and no grazing marks from the edge of the fragment cone. And that means we have a very significant angle to the warhead.

I do not know how many interactions with fragments happened within the cockpit. And if the right cockpit roof impacts are real and inaccessible from the new position, and they are not exit holes, then the warhead must be placed somewhat higher. But remember they are farther away than the ricochets in question.

Very important is the place of detonation so far from the nose of the plane, since now it could be a BUK too. Also then it cannot come from Zaroshchenske any longer. Further, if the detonation point is really so low then secondary fragments may have reached the left engine. And if parts of the missile are found in Petropavlivka and Rozsypne, then the missile likely torpedoed the aircraft first. Then the most likely launch site would be to the North of Snizhne. We have developed many scenarios. But this is not my model, it is also new for me. I am just a rudderless developer of scenarios.

Change of direction:

Calculation of point of detonation not possible:

October 28, 2016


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