Marcel van den Berg found two ricochets from which one looks somewhat like a grazing mark. He wonders if readers could find the point of detonation of the warhead from these ricochets:
Grazing mark: A bouncing fragment which only makes a notch with a very acute angle.
Ricochet: A bouncing fragment which mostly makes a hole in the metal of the target.
First the angle of the ricochets with the bottom line of the second left windshield was determined:
The angle is 18 degrees:
Notice, the bottom line of the second left windshield is not quite horizontal:
With ricochets we accept an impact angle to 30 degrees, above 30 degrees the fragment goes through the metal:
But titanium is very hard material, so we might set the 30 degree boundary on 45 degrees. Firstly, we need the emission of fragments by the lancet of Almaz-Antey:
Because it must have been heavy shrapnel we look for bowties and squares for the second left windshield:
Then we inspect the examples from next figure which might conform to the situation:
Now, we draw the red line of 117 degrees from the warhead to the plane, as if it is a grazing mark with a very, very acute angle:
NOW WE CALCULATE THE POINT OF DETONATION
We know the diameter of the fuselage is 6.20 meter:
From here we find all measures we need. First we fill in the horizontal dimension:
We see the point of detonation is more than 3 meters from the nose: