MH17 Crystal Ball: MH17: JIT in despair?

Basic Dimension

http://mh17crystalball.blogspot.nl/Number Archive

Can we forget about bowties in the albert_lex histogram? Forget about warhead 9N314M? I'm afraid not. Following the requirement of conditional probability we did not found butterflies in the hull, but the facts of albert_lex do not make the profile of 9N314M impossible:

The albert_lex report or the Albert Naryshkin report

http://albert-lex.livejournal.com/68374.html

The albert_lex histogram investigated by the Russian MoD concerns a sample of 186 holes out of 350 impacts in the MH17 to measure the transverse dimensions perpendicular on the direction of impact:

http://tinyurl.com/jv22t82

From this histogram we derived the following square. This fragment meant by albert_lex can impact on a target from all points of a sphere:

http://tinyurl.com/hn25huv

We ruled out

Old Ukrainian warhead 9N314

Proceeding with the albert_lex research.

Following the histogram of albert_lex we can forget about the old BUK-warhead 9N314 because category 6 (33) is missing:

http://tinyurl.com/h2vg9f3

Also warhead 9N318 from missile 9M317 was falsified. This because its rib of 6.5 mm cannot be narrower and I guess albert_lex found mostly 6 mm ribs. Nearly all 6.5 ribs would have fallen into (6.5-7-7.5) which received only two observations.

Correction 2022:

As said, Albert_lex results suggest a parallelepiped of 8x8x6 mm, which is about the content of the Russian warhead 9N318 (8x8x6.5 mm), if it has to be a BUK. Warhead 9N318 is within the tolerance of 6 +/- 0.5 mm. But it was difficult to install this warhead on that old BUK. So, not likely and stupid because it would refer to the Russians.

I remember the old Russian warheads 9N314M were used in Russia only for training purposes. But more importantly, they were normally in use by the Ukrainian Army.

'There is only one problem with this story: Almaz-Antey, the manufacturer of the BUK system, attested that a 9N314M1 warhead can only be used on an advanced BUK missile of type 9M38M1 (see image above). However, even the official investigation acknowledges that the Eastern Ukrainian rebels could not have possessed this advanced type of BUK missile, but only a standard missile of type 9M38. Yet according to the manufacturer, a standard 9M38 BUK missile can carry only a standard warhead of type 9N314, which does not contain the butterfly-shaped warhead fragments (see image above). '

I remember the old Russian warheads 9N314M were used in Russia only for training purposes. But more importantly, they were normally in use by the Ukrainian Army.

This combined with the serial number of the projectile, which was allegedly stationed in Ukraine, leads to Ukraine as the culprit, if we only assume the corpus delicti: the fuselage. But as a scientist and a layman, I cannot take the end conclusion.

Two false flag options are the best logical solutions to the downing of MH17:

1: The most likely is that the Ukrainian army has misled the separatists with an incoming AN-26, which in fact was the MH17. Then the BUK came from the official trapezoid in front of the MH17.

But no judge can convict separatists without considering the following arguments:

1: Separatists were out of spotters that day.

2: Bad weather, bad visibility that day.

3: Separatists were totally dependent on Ukrainian BUK radio from Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk radar, or another Air Force base for any overcoming flight as the allegedly 'approaching AN26'.

2: The second possibility is that Ukraine has launched a BUK far away from the ground track of the MH17 on the left side with the intention of putting the blame on the separatists. That BUK had enormous freedom to change course during the flight.

No judge can convict separatists without considering the following argument: Why did Ukraine refuse to submit their radar data from the left side of MH17 where Ukrainian BUKS were stationed?

http://tinyurl.com/oqwc6qr

That leaves us with 9N314M, the warhead with the bow-ties.

But remember, only the profile of 9N314M is confirmed by albert_lex, not the warhead itself. So, in theory there might be other warheads with the same profile. Only if it definitely is a BUK, than it is proven the BUK with the bow-ties.

Complications

Now there is a complication since to avoid normal distributed deviance around the ribs, the squares must manage to fall with their full rib on the (hull of the) MH17.

This would happen in case there was deviance around the ribs:

By rotation of width = 8 to the hypotenuse the width of a rib may become larger 9, 10 but not smaller. Only diagonals will become smaller after rotation 11, 10, 9:

http://tinyurl.com/hpyok6x

Anyway, if the histogram of albert_lex gives the real measures of squares, then acute angles bring squares to their ground form without many rotations:

Below indeed we see some deviation but it seems not enough:

http://tinyurl.com/jv22t82

We think squares behave differently and rotate to their ribs earlier then bow-ties:

Little squares (8x8x5MM) of old Ukrainian warhead 9N314 have insignificant mass and so their velocity vector was bent straight through the hull. This means the pile of category 6 cannot be caused by category 5 of this square. Category 5 is from 4.5 - 5.5. Our conclusion is the old warhead 9N314 has not been used to shoot down the MH17. This conclusion is in line with the albert_lex histogram which states: "The results of evaluation of hole sizes available in the photos suggests that the submunitions were in the form of a parallelepiped with sides 8x8x6 mm with a tolerance of +/- 0.5 mm.

It is thought bow-ties miss their ribs more because of rounded edges:

http://tinyurl.com/zht48cb

This means bowties are disadvantaged in the histogram of albert_lex. They possibly are normally distributed around some value.

Only if ribs and 'flat' surfaces of bowties are already perpendicular on the direction of impact, their measures will be reproduced like squares. Which means on category 13 we will find only a portion of the bowtie impressions:

http://tinyurl.com/hanjk82

And that means we cannot falsify the bow-tie scenario by the histogram of albert_lex. On the other hand warhead 9N314M itself is not confirmed, because with this profile more warheads can do the job. Only the profile of 9N314M is confirmed, not the warhead itself:

Warhead 9N314M (bowties: Ukraine and Russia)

But can we also forget about bowties in the albert_lex histogram? Forget about warhead 9N314M? I'm afraid not. Following the requirement of conditional probability we did not found butterflies in the hull, but the facts of albert_lex do not make the profile of 9N314M impossible.

And if we cannot discard the profile of 9N314M there might come a moment we also have to accept bowties. But remember, warhead 9N314M self is not proven, because other warheads with the same profile can have done the job. With the research of albert_lex we only proved the conditional probability of the profile of 9N314M, not of warhead 9N314M self.

Hence, in the sample of albert_lex warhead 9N314M is not impossible:

http://tinyurl.com/jbhtfau