Sunday, 1 January 2017

MH17: JIT in despair?

Basic Dimension




   


Can we forget about bowties in the albert_lex histogram? Forget about warhead 9N314M? I'm afraid not. Following the requirement of conditional probability we did not found butterflies in the hull, but the facts of albert_lex do not make the profile of 9N314M impossible:


The albert_lex report or the Albert Naryshkin report

http://albert-lex.livejournal.com/68374.html


The albert_lex histogram investigated by the Russian MoD concerns a sample of 186 holes out of 350 impacts in the MH17 to measure the transverse dimensions perpendicular on the direction of impact:



http://tinyurl.com/jv22t82






From this histogram we derived the following square. This fragment meant by albert_lex can impact on a target from all points of a sphere:

http://tinyurl.com/hn25huv




  
We ruled out 

Old Ukrainian warhead 9N314


Proceeding with the albert_lex research.

Following the histogram of albert_lex we can forget about the old BUK-warhead 9N314 because category 6 (33) is missing:

http://tinyurl.com/h2vg9f3



Also warhead 9N318 from missile 9M317 was falsified. This because its rib of 6.5 mm cannot be narrower and I guess albert_lex found mostly 6 mm ribs. Nearly all 6.5 ribs would have fallen into (6.5-7-7.5) which received only two observations. 

http://tinyurl.com/oqwc6qr







That leaves us with 9N314M, the warhead with the bow-ties. 

But remember, only the profile of 9N314M is confirmed by albert_lex, not the warhead itself. So, in theory there might be other warheads with the same profile. Only if it definitely is a BUK, than it is proven the BUK with the bow-ties.


Complications

Now there is a complication since to avoid normal distributed deviance around the ribs, the squares must manage to fall with their full rib on the (hull of the) MH17.

This would happen in case there was deviance around the ribs:

By rotation of width = 8 to the hypotenuse the width of a rib may become larger 9, 10 but not smaller. Only diagonals will become smaller after rotation 11, 10, 9:

http://tinyurl.com/hpyok6x





Anyway, if the histogram of albert_lex gives the real measures of squares, then acute angles bring squares to their ground form without many rotations:




Below indeed we see some deviation but it seems not enough:

http://tinyurl.com/jv22t82





We think squares behave differently and rotate to their ribs earlier then bow-ties:




Little squares (8x8x5MM) of old Ukrainian warhead 9N314 have insignificant mass and so their velocity vector was bent straight through the hull. This means the pile of category 6 cannot be caused by category 5 of this square. Category 5 is from 4.5 - 5.5. Our conclusion is the old warhead 9N314 has not been used to shoot down the MH17. This conclusion is in line with the albert_lex histogram which states: "The results of evaluation of hole sizes available in the photos suggests that the submunitions were in the form of a parallelepiped with sides 8x8x6 mm with a tolerance of +/- 0.5 mm.


It is thought bow-ties miss their ribs more because of rounded edges:





This means bowties are disadvantaged in the histogram of albert_lex. They possibly are normally distributed around some value.

Only if ribs and 'flat' surfaces of bowties are already perpendicular on the direction of impact, their measures will be reproduced like squares. Which means on category 13 we will find only a portion of the bowtie impressions:










And that means we cannot falsify the bow-tie scenario by the histogram of albert_lex. On the other hand warhead 9N314M itself is not confirmed, because with this profile more warheads can do the job. Only the profile of 9N314M is confirmed, not the warhead itself:


Warhead 9N314M (bowties: Ukraine and Russia)

But can we also forget about bowties in the albert_lex histogram? Forget about warhead 9N314M? I'm afraid not. Following the requirement of conditional probability we did not found butterflies in the hull, but the facts of albert_lex do not make the profile of 9N314M impossible. 

And if we cannot discard the profile of 9N314M there might come a moment we also have to accept bowties. But remember, warhead 9N314M self is not proven, because other warheads with the same profile can have done the job. With the research of albert_lex we only proved the conditional probability of the profile of 9N314M, not of warhead 9N314M self.

Hence, in the sample of albert_lex warhead 9N314M is not impossible:





So, with this material JIT has no proof of a BUK warhead for court.










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