(Dutch summary below)
Russians were accused immediately after the downing of MH17. But they had no motive, neither had the separatists. Only Ukraine had a motive.
This means in a credible scenario Ukraine was placed at the start of the permutation (a, b, c, d) with a false flag operation (a), in which a passenger aircraft was indicated as a Ukrainian military airplane, after which the separatists brought down the wrong plane (b).
This mini permutation (a, b) provided a credible scenario for the downing of MH17, but still needed an interaction between Ukraine and the separatists. This also applies to the Double agent. Such scenarios are only addressed as more promising scenarios are falsified.
It is easier if no interaction between the parties is required. Then the first step could be a false flag operation of Ukraine with two low-flying SU-25 fighters (a), giving the separatists supposedly a reason for firing a BUK, but with Ukraine ultimately shooting down the MH17 (b). This permutation has the greatest chance of success because no interaction is required between parties. And for this scenario, the use of warhead 9N314 would be a strong indication. Keep that in mind.
In these scenarios we think MH17 was downed by a BUK. Any other scenario has no reasonable likelihood. Air to Air (A2A) missiles are light and heat sensitive and usually hit the engines. The modern Python might be programmed different. But remember how big the MH17 was and how small and light an A2A rocket. Which, in a millisecond should have crashed the computer and all main connections in the MH17.
Also, there are many logistical problems with possible Ukrainian fighter jets, which had to come close in the vicinity of the MH17 in order to be effective. A difficult scenario for a country like Ukraine. Why complicate things with fighter aircraft as it can be easier with a BUK?
Qualified blogs tried to prove the Russian scenario in every way possible. The only scenario is with warhead 9N314M with bowties:
Almaz-Antey was able to show butterfly impressions in their realistic test with 9N314M:
DSB however failed:
It is all more complicated. Following albert_lex normal distribution of squares there result only one parallelepiped of 8x8x6 mm, which is exactly the content of the Russian warhead 9N318.
This normal distribution indicates the use of only one parallelepiped with sides 8x8x6 mm. (ic.pics.livejournal.com). This means we must think of the modern Russian warhead 9N318 or the BUK is too heavy and it must be a lighter 40 kg warhead.
[- Python is equipped with an array imaging infrared seeker. This enables the missile with a relatively small warhead to attack a large plane and well on the most vulnerable place. The fragmentation warhead consists of elements of fixed size and only one type. In addition, this is also the type of missile which can be fired from a Sukhoi-25KM. Georgia is in possession of 3 such SU-25KM fighter aircraft and has an arsenal of Python-4 and Python-5 missiles.]
Transport of a BUK in Donetsk
Also, the possible transport of a BUK in Luhansk and Donetsk was recalculated in detail and questioned (Arnold Greidanus).
And even if the separatists in Donetsk on July 17, 2014 really possessed a Russian warhead 9N314M, this does not mean they brought down the MH17. Precisely then a recast of the permutation was possible and Ukraine could have take action with a false flag.
Russia or Ukraine would be the possible culprit if warhead 9N314M was proved. Then Russia was possibly involved in the downing of MH17.
But the hypothesis of the scenario with 9N314M has been virtually falsified. Unless JIT has retained a lot of evidence of bowties. But then Joustra would have blatted.
The requirement of conditional probability
In a crime investigation it is required bowties found in the fuselage also left a butterfly impression in the hull. Else perhaps bowties could have been placed in the wreck otherwise. Hence, we demand a conditional probability for bowties in the cockpit. A few hundred bowties should have gone through the hull and the windshields, but no butterfly was found. Therefore, the conditional probability must be zero. No haggling with criminals.
Estimating the number of bowties through the hull
- A segment on the roof of MH17 can be seen as reasonable surface normal to the sum vector. For this segment we exactly calculated the expected numbers of bowties:
– A 14% warhead area is selected on the roof in front of door L1 to the left windshield as reasonable surface normal, which can be inspected from pictured roof plates.
– Following the ‘separated time and space blast theory’ of DSB on the left side of this area are expected: .14 x .32 x 1870 = 84 bowties.
– On the right side are expected: .14 x .68 x 1870 = 178 bowties.
– But also under quite acute angles bowties would show characteristic impacts:
– Maximally 617 bowties are expected accepting a 120% angle from the warhead to the aircraft: (.33 x .32 x 1870 = 197) + (.33 x .68 x 1870 = 420) = 617 bowties.
– DSB found 350 holes of impact for 7840 striking elements. Then bowties would have shown maximally 84 butterfly holes, seen from all angles (24% of 350).
- Assumptions regarding translations optimize chances for finding characteristic butterflies on the hull. But we also have 197+ 420 = 617 fillers (6x6x8.2). And for them rotations does not matter. This means holes of 168 bowties and fillers out of 350 holes on the hull of MH17 would have shown in case of 9N314M.
– All this evidence together and no bowties or fillers detected falsify 9N314M from Snizhne.
We must reject bowties in MH17
Therefore we reject the bowtie "found" in the body of Captain A. This bowtie just came out of the blue without report of a reliable coroner from for example, the Red Cross. It is not even sure the bowtie was really found in his body. Now JIT is too late to be credible.
Furthermore, the imprint of a bowtie on EFIS, a mechanical instrument in the cockpit, cannot be confirmed because just at that spot there was a big hole in the windshield.
'An EFIS has been found with an alleged bowtie hole. It is expected to be the left EFIS:'
The game changer of MH17
In short, nobody confirmed the hypothesis of warhead 9N314M. But the hypothesis can be falsified? I think so. As follows:
Recently, the unlikely happened when Marcel van den Berg has proven virtually that the bowtie found by RTL at the crash site must be based on deception. This bowtie, found in a puddle of rain water in the bowl of a large piece of wreckage must be placed there only after the wreckage has been reversed.
Namely, Marcel compared the bowl of RTL with the first picture of the wreckage taken immediately after the plane had crashed, then with the convex side up. This article is the game changer of the MH17 investigation.
Now I think it can be considered as proven bowties did not penetrate MH17 through the hull or through the windshields, so the conditional probability of bowties 'found' in the airplane is zero and automatically all bowties in relation to MH17 are disconfirmed. Hence, also 9N314M as the warhead used is disconfirmed. That's what the judge will decide right too soon. He will likely reject Russian participation in 9N314M on the basis of this article of van den Berg. Unless JIT has secured other evidence. For example, maybe JIT thinks about 9N318 of the 9M317.
Note that this line of primary evidence by confirming bombs and grenades leads to complete other outcomes than the political framing of the Dutch government, the manipulation of so-called telephone calls by the SBU (DSB) and the desperate surveys of JIT from the social sciences. Primary argument always comes before desperate framing of circumstantial evidence as committed by the Dutch State Propaganda Channel NOS (Bellingcat).
What we conclude:
According to the specification of Almaz-Antey, the manufacturer of the BUK, two BUKs are about: the ancient Ukrainian BUK missile 9M38 with warhead 9N314 and the modern Russian BUK missile 9M317 with warhead 9N318. The latter, however, produces only small holes while precisely many large are found in the MH17, so 9N318 falls off and 9N314 remains ...
No, not true since albert_lex found a normal distribution of only one square: 8x8x6 possibly coming from warhead 9N318 from 9M317.
Akkermans also stated that the fragments were found to be a 9M317 missile from a Buk-M1-2 (this might be true). The DSB comes to the 9N314M warhead, carried by a 9M38 series missile (this is falsified).
It could have been a Russian 9M317 missile. Admin proved earlier it cannot be a (Russian) 9N314M warhead.
If the bow-tie has been planted, when?
Basic Dimension // March 21, 2016 at 11:17 pm //